Rodada 28 de 2026

• cartola_2026_athlete_market_r28
  função: athlete_market · disponível: 2026-09-19T18:01:00Z · coletado: 2026-09-19T18:01:00Z
  sha256:2d5e2e3b9c6772b2246fb23d442654543b010654b8c08c118ea943b450dce6c6
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• cartola_2026_fixtures_r28
  função: current_round_fixtures · disponível: 2026-09-19T18:01:00Z · coletado: 2026-09-19T18:01:00Z
  sha256:ac58c7f698498e572f316e5fb020de57613efef691c443127bb109d16f0a6825
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• cartola_2026_fixtures_r29
  função: next_round_fixtures · disponível: 2026-09-19T18:01:00Z · coletado: 2026-09-19T18:01:00Z
  sha256:74ec72a69552f030e52c01add1bc0f81c20e3d6269f7bd5cb0abd39716492bd8
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• cartola_2026_market_status_r28
  função: market_status · disponível: 2026-09-19T18:01:00Z · coletado: 2026-09-19T18:01:00Z
  sha256:5199cf3bbbf6ed1f965028e81a846fb6f8f46b22a2fa44ec393654c9af4adc75
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• ge_2026_availability_r28
  função: probable_lineups_injuries_suspensions · disponível: 2026-09-19T18:01:00Z · coletado: 2026-09-19T18:01:00Z
  sha256:2369912d180115ec214056af4846fb7900f53ae472c28536dadf72b33d0e4d48
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Os códigos abaixo são preservados sem tradução para permitir reprodução e auditoria.

{
  "bench": [
    {
      "cartomante_evidence": {
        "club_slug": "bahia",
        "escalacao_atualizada_em": "2026-09-19T14:42:23.122Z",
        "esquema": "4-3-3",
        "method": "cartomante_escalacao_provavel",
        "source_id": "cartomante"
      },
      "cartomante_starter": true,
      "cartomante_statusIA": true,
      "club": "BAH",
      "club_id": "265",
      "code_commit": "bf64c1683a536c0e5c3cff8451b635711ba5e403",
      "confidence": "high",
      "expected_minutes": null,
      "expected_points": 4.8611,
      "expected_points_original_odds": 5.3255,
      "factors_positive": [
        "status_probable_observed",
        "season_mean_at_or_above_shrunk_projection",
        "named_in_probable_lineup"
      ],
      "field_provenance": {
        "opponent_venue": {
          "classification": "observed",
          "source_id": "cartola_2026_fixtures_r28"
        },
        "price_status_scouts": {
          "classification": "observed",
          "source_id": "cartola_2026_athlete_market_r28"
        }
      },
      "games": 17,
      "historical_mean": 4.99,
      "limitations": [
        "no_pre_cutoff_minutes_or_lineup_history",
        "prediction_interval_unavailable"
      ],
      "markov_percentile": 0.9355,
      "markov_points": 5.3255,
      "markov_stationary_probability": 0.01843,
      "match_id": "346552",
      "method": "mean_by_player_shrunk_to_position_mean",
      "model_version": "baseline-shrinkage-current-2026-v1",
      "name": "Ronaldo",
      "odds_home": false,
      "odds_overlay": {
        "applied": -0.4644,
        "factor": 0.9128,
        "win_prob": 0.282
      },
      "opponent": "CAP",
      "opponent_id": "293",
      "player_id": "91101",
      "points_p10": null,
      "points_p50": 4.89,
      "points_p90": null,
      "position": "gol",
      "price": 7.51,
      "risks": [
        "odds_underdog"
      ],
      "rotation_risk": "low",
      "season_scouts": {
        "CA": 2,
        "DE": 53,
        "DS": 1,
        "FS": 1,
        "GS": 14,
        "SG": 6
      },
      "snapshot_id": "snap_current_69b940c8a5f5512f55c1",
      "starter_evidence": {
        "evidence": {
          "club": "bahia",
          "slot": "GOL",
          "slug": "ronaldo"
        },
        "method": "provaveisdocartola_html",
        "reason": "na escala\u00e7\u00e3o prov\u00e1vel (provavel)",
        "source_id": "provaveisdocartola"
      },
      "starter_probability": 0.9,
      "status": "Prov\u00e1vel",
      "status_id": 7,
      "structural_rotation_evidence": {
        "reason": "no_continental_match_in_window"
      },
      "structural_rotation_flag": false,
      "team_draw_prob": 0.2775,
      "team_win_prob": 0.282,
      "venue": "away"
    },
    {
      "cartomante_evidence": {
        "club_slug": "remo",
        "escalacao_atualizada_em": "2026-09-19T15:33:36.479Z",
        "esquema": "4-4-2",
        "method": "cartomante_escalacao_provavel",
        "source_id": "cartomante"
      },
      "cartomante_starter": true,
      "cartomante_statusIA": true,
      "club": "REM",
      "club_id": "364",
      "code_commit": "bf64c1683a536c0e5c3cff8451b635711ba5e403",
      "confidence": "high",
      "expected_minutes": null,
      "expected_points": 4.7643,
      "expected_points_original_odds": 5.1126,
      "factors_positive": [
        "status_probable_observed",
        "home_fixture_observed",
        "season_mean_at_or_above_shrunk_projection",
        "named_in_probable_lineup"
      ],
      "field_provenance": {
        "opponent_venue": {
          "classification": "observed",
          "source_id": "cartola_2026_fixtures_r28"
        },
        "price_status_scouts": {
          "classification": "observed",
          "source_id": "cartola_2026_athlete_market_r28"
        }
      },
      "games": 22,
      "historical_mean": 5.1,
      "limitations": [
        "no_pre_cutoff_minutes_or_lineup_history",
        "prediction_interval_unavailable"
      ],
      "markov_percentile": 0.5926,
      "markov_points": 5.1126,
      "markov_stationary_probability": 0.005862,
      "match_id": "346554",
      "method": "mean_by_player_shrunk_to_position_mean",
      "model_version": "baseline-shrinkage-current-2026-v1",
      "name": "Marcelinho",
      "odds_home": true,
      "odds_overlay": {
        "applied": -0.3483,
        "factor": 0.9319,
        "win_prob": 0.3297
      },
      "opponent": "SAN",
      "opponent_id": "277",
      "player_id": "97795",
      "points_p10": null,
      "points_p50": 5.02,
      "points_p90": null,
      "position": "lat",
      "price": 6.06,
      "risks": [
        "odds_underdog"
      ],
      "rotation_risk": "low",
      "season_scouts": {
        "A": 2,
        "CA": 3,
        "DS": 27,
        "FC": 8,
        "FD": 6,
        "FF": 14,
        "FS": 30,
        "FT": 1,
        "G": 2,
        "I": 2,
        "SG": 3
      },
      "snapshot_id": "snap_current_69b940c8a5f5512f55c1",
      "starter_evidence": {
        "evidence": {
          "club": "santos",
          "slot": "LAT-R",
          "slug": "marcelinho"
        },
        "method": "provaveisdocartola_html",
        "reason": "na escala\u00e7\u00e3o prov\u00e1vel (provavel)",
        "source_id": "provaveisdocartola"
      },
      "starter_probability": 0.9,
      "status": "Prov\u00e1vel",
      "status_id": 7,
      "structural_rotation_evidence": {
        "reason": "no_continental_match_in_window"
      },
      "structural_rotation_flag": false,
      "team_draw_prob": 0.2858,
      "team_win_prob": 0.3297,
      "venue": "home"
    },
    {
      "cartomante_evidence": {
        "club_slug": "coritiba",
        "escalacao_atualizada_em": "2026-09-19T17:36:03.208Z",
        "esquema": "5-2-3",
        "method": "cartomante_escalacao_provavel",
        "source_id": "cartomante"
      },
      "cartomante_starter": true,
      "cartomante_statusIA": true,
      "club": "CFC",
      "club_id": "294",
      "code_commit": "bf64c1683a536c0e5c3cff8451b635711ba5e403",
      "confidence": "high",
      "expected_minutes": null,
      "expected_points": 2.4835,
      "expected_points_original_odds": 2.9105,
      "factors_positive": [
        "status_probable_observed",
        "season_mean_at_or_above_shrunk_projection",
        "named_in_probable_lineup"
      ],
      "field_provenance": {
        "opponent_venue": {
          "classification": "observed",
          "source_id": "cartola_2026_fixtures_r28"
        },
        "price_status_scouts": {
          "classification": "observed",
          "source_id": "cartola_2026_athlete_market_r28"
        }
      },
      "games": 22,
      "historical_mean": 2.77,
      "limitations": [
        "no_pre_cutoff_minutes_or_lineup_history",
        "prediction_interval_unavailable"
      ],
      "markov_percentile": 0.5805,
      "markov_points": 2.9105,
      "markov_stationary_probability": 0.005072,
      "match_id": "346546",
      "method": "mean_by_player_shrunk_to_position_mean",
      "model_version": "baseline-shrinkage-current-2026-v1",
      "name": "Tiago C\u00f3ser",
      "odds_home": false,
      "odds_overlay": {
        "applied": -0.427,
        "factor": 0.8533,
        "win_prob": 0.1332
      },
      "opponent": "VAS",
      "opponent_id": "267",
      "player_id": "109127",
      "points_p10": null,
      "points_p50": 2.83,
      "points_p90": null,
      "position": "zag",
      "price": 3.35,
      "risks": [
        "odds_underdog"
      ],
      "rotation_risk": "low",
      "season_scouts": {
        "CA": 3,
        "CV": 1,
        "DS": 10,
        "FC": 25,
        "FF": 2,
        "FS": 8,
        "G": 3,
        "SG": 6
      },
      "snapshot_id": "snap_current_69b940c8a5f5512f55c1",
      "starter_evidence": {
        "evidence": {
          "club": "vasco",
          "slot": "ZAG-R",
          "slug": "tiago-coser"
        },
        "method": "provaveisdocartola_html",
        "reason": "na escala\u00e7\u00e3o prov\u00e1vel (provavel)",
        "source_id": "provaveisdocartola"
      },
      "starter_probability": 0.9,
      "status": "Prov\u00e1vel",
      "status_id": 7,
      "structural_rotation_evidence": {
        "reason": "no_continental_match_in_window"
      },
      "structural_rotation_flag": false,
      "team_draw_prob": 0.2185,
      "team_win_prob": 0.1332,
      "venue": "away"
    },
    {
      "cartomante_evidence": {
        "club_slug": "mirassol",
        "escalacao_atualizada_em": "2026-09-19T17:08:20.144Z",
        "esquema": "4-3-3",
        "method": "cartomante_escalacao_provavel",
        "source_id": "cartomante"
      },
      "cartomante_starter": true,
      "cartomante_statusIA": true,
      "club": "MIR",
      "club_id": "2305",
      "code_commit": "bf64c1683a536c0e5c3cff8451b635711ba5e403",
      "confidence": "high",
      "expected_minutes": null,
      "expected_points": 2.9735,
      "expected_points_original_odds": 3.0216,
      "factors_positive": [
        "status_probable_observed",
        "home_fixture_observed",
        "season_mean_at_or_above_shrunk_projection",
        "named_in_probable_lineup"
      ],
      "field_provenance": {
        "opponent_venue": {
          "classification": "observed",
          "source_id": "cartola_2026_fixtures_r28"
        },
        "price_status_scouts": {
          "classification": "observed",
          "source_id": "cartola_2026_athlete_market_r28"
        }
      },
      "games": 16,
      "historical_mean": 3.07,
      "limitations": [
        "no_pre_cutoff_minutes_or_lineup_history",
        "prediction_interval_unavailable"
      ],
      "markov_percentile": 0.3916,
      "markov_points": 3.0216,
      "markov_stationary_probability": 0.001767,
      "match_id": "346549",
      "method": "mean_by_player_shrunk_to_position_mean",
      "model_version": "baseline-shrinkage-current-2026-v1",
      "name": "Denilson",
      "odds_home": true,
      "odds_overlay": {
        "applied": -0.0481,
        "factor": 0.9841,
        "win_prob": 0.4602
      },
      "opponent": "BOT",
      "opponent_id": "263",
      "player_id": "115986",
      "points_p10": null,
      "points_p50": 3.13,
      "points_p90": null,
      "position": "mei",
      "price": 4.52,
      "risks": [],
      "rotation_risk": "low",
      "season_scouts": {
        "CA": 4,
        "DS": 29,
        "FC": 29,
        "FD": 2,
        "FF": 2,
        "FS": 15,
        "G": 1,
        "PC": 1
      },
      "snapshot_id": "snap_current_69b940c8a5f5512f55c1",
      "starter_evidence": {
        "evidence": {
          "club": "mirassol",
          "slot": "MEI-R",
          "slug": "denilson"
        },
        "method": "provaveisdocartola_html",
        "reason": "na escala\u00e7\u00e3o prov\u00e1vel (provavel)",
        "source_id": "provaveisdocartola"
      },
      "starter_probability": 0.9,
      "status": "Prov\u00e1vel",
      "status_id": 7,
      "structural_rotation_evidence": {
        "reason": "outside_data_horizon"
      },
      "structural_rotation_flag": null,
      "team_draw_prob": 0.2659,
      "team_win_prob": 0.4602,
      "venue": "home"
    },
    {
      "cartomante_evidence": {
        "club_slug": "bahia",
        "escalacao_atualizada_em": "2026-09-19T14:42:23.122Z",
        "esquema": "4-3-3",
        "method": "cartomante_escalacao_provavel",
        "source_id": "cartomante"
      },
      "cartomante_starter": true,
      "cartomante_statusIA": true,
      "club": "BAH",
      "club_id": "265",
      "code_commit": "bf64c1683a536c0e5c3cff8451b635711ba5e403",
      "confidence": "high",
      "expected_minutes": null,
      "expected_points": 4.7237,
      "expected_points_original_odds": 5.175,
      "factors_positive": [
        "status_probable_observed",
        "named_in_probable_lineup"
      ],
      "field_provenance": {
        "opponent_venue": {
          "classification": "observed",
          "source_id": "cartola_2026_fixtures_r28"
        },
        "price_status_scouts": {
          "classification": "observed",
          "source_id": "cartola_2026_athlete_market_r28"
        }
      },
      "games": 25,
      "historical_mean": 4.67,
      "limitations": [
        "no_pre_cutoff_minutes_or_lineup_history",
        "prediction_interval_unavailable"
      ],
      "markov_percentile": 0.985,
      "markov_points": 5.175,
      "markov_stationary_probability": 0.007538,
      "match_id": "346552",
      "method": "mean_by_player_shrunk_to_position_mean",
      "model_version": "baseline-shrinkage-current-2026-v1",
      "name": "Erick Pulga",
      "odds_home": false,
      "odds_overlay": {
        "applied": -0.4513,
        "factor": 0.9128,
        "win_prob": 0.282
      },
      "opponent": "CAP",
      "opponent_id": "293",
      "player_id": "109401",
      "points_p10": null,
      "points_p50": 4.69,
      "points_p90": null,
      "position": "ata",
      "price": 8.49,
      "risks": [
        "odds_underdog"
      ],
      "rotation_risk": "low",
      "season_scouts": {
        "A": 2,
        "CA": 5,
        "DS": 26,
        "FC": 25,
        "FD": 14,
        "FF": 10,
        "FS": 49,
        "FT": 2,
        "G": 3,
        "I": 12,
        "PC": 1,
        "PS": 3
      },
      "snapshot_id": "snap_current_69b940c8a5f5512f55c1",
      "starter_evidence": {
        "evidence": {
          "club": "bahia",
          "slot": "ATA-L",
          "slug": "erick-pulga"
        },
        "method": "provaveisdocartola_html",
        "reason": "na escala\u00e7\u00e3o prov\u00e1vel (provavel)",
        "source_id": "provaveisdocartola"
      },
      "starter_probability": 0.9,
      "status": "Prov\u00e1vel",
      "status_id": 7,
      "structural_rotation_evidence": {
        "reason": "no_continental_match_in_window"
      },
      "structural_rotation_flag": false,
      "team_draw_prob": 0.2775,
      "team_win_prob": 0.282,
      "venue": "away"
    }
  ],
  "bench_cost": 29.93,
  "budget": 94.99,
  "budget_basis": "resolved_from_team_patrimonio",
  "captain_id": "94583",
  "confidence": {
    "level": "high",
    "reasons": [
      "all_sources_available"
    ]
  },
  "cost": 94.91,
  "formation": "4-3-3",
  "label": "SIMULA\u00c7\u00c3O -- N\u00c3O SUBMETIDA AO CARTOLAFC",
  "luxury_reserve": {
    "analysis": {
      "armband_bonus": 0.0,
      "can_inherit_armband": false,
      "captain_at_position": true,
      "captain_is_weakest": false,
      "hypothesis": "attackers with captain at position may benefit most from luxury reserve (pending backtest validation)",
      "player_id": "109401",
      "position": "ata",
      "position_context_bonus": 1.0,
      "projection_gap": -0.76,
      "score": 0.24,
      "weakest_starter_id": "95799",
      "weakest_starter_name": "Artur",
      "weakest_starter_projection": 5.4873
    },
    "club": "BAH",
    "expected_gain": 0.24,
    "expected_points": 4.7237,
    "name": "Erick Pulga",
    "player_id": "109401",
    "position": "ata",
    "price": 8.49
  },
  "market_close_at": "2026-09-19T15:59:00-03:00",
  "market_status": "open",
  "markov_config": {
    "max_bonus": 0.5,
    "model": "markov_chain_stationary",
    "overlay_enabled": true
  },
  "model": "markov_chain_stationary",
  "model_version": "baseline-shrinkage-current-2026-v1",
  "next_round_readiness": {
    "reason": "next-round athlete prices and statuses are not yet available; fixture validity is incomplete",
    "round": 29,
    "status": "blocked",
    "total_fixtures": 10,
    "valid_fixtures": 10
  },
  "projected_total": 67.41,
  "recorded_at": "2026-09-19T18:01:00Z",
  "round": 28,
  "schema_version": 1,
  "season": 2026,
  "sensitivities": [
    {
      "assumption": "latest observed probable status and standard constraints",
      "bench_cost": 29.93,
      "bench_ids": [
        "91101",
        "97795",
        "109127",
        "115986",
        "109401"
      ],
      "budget": 94.99,
      "captain_id": "94583",
      "cost": 94.91,
      "expected_points_difference": 0.0,
      "formation": "4-3-3",
      "luxury_reserve": {
        "analysis": {
          "armband_bonus": 0.0,
          "can_inherit_armband": false,
          "captain_at_position": true,
          "captain_is_weakest": false,
          "hypothesis": "attackers with captain at position may benefit most from luxury reserve (pending backtest validation)",
          "player_id": "109401",
          "position": "ata",
          "position_context_bonus": 1.0,
          "projection_gap": -0.76,
          "score": 0.24,
          "weakest_starter_id": "95799",
          "weakest_starter_name": "Artur",
          "weakest_starter_projection": 5.4873
        },
        "club": "BAH",
        "expected_gain": 0.24,
        "expected_points": 4.7237,
        "name": "Erick Pulga",
        "player_id": "109401",
        "position": "ata",
        "price": 8.49
      },
      "players_changed": 0,
      "projected_total": 67.41,
      "scenario": "standard_optimal",
      "starter_cost": 94.91,
      "starter_ids": [
        "101908",
        "102975",
        "107256",
        "109096",
        "124526",
        "141754",
        "72460",
        "78855",
        "92273",
        "94583",
        "95799",
        "99552"
      ]
    },
    {
      "assumption": "highest-projected selected player becomes unavailable",
      "bench_cost": 27.3,
      "bench_ids": [
        "117404",
        "97795",
        "109127",
        "80129",
        "109401"
      ],
      "budget": 94.99,
      "captain_id": "109096",
      "changed_player_id": "94583",
      "cost": 94.76,
      "expected_points_difference": -0.89,
      "formation": "4-3-3",
      "luxury_reserve": {
        "analysis": {
          "armband_bonus": 0.0,
          "can_inherit_armband": false,
          "captain_at_position": true,
          "captain_is_weakest": false,
          "hypothesis": "attackers with captain at position may benefit most from luxury reserve (pending backtest validation)",
          "player_id": "109401",
          "position": "ata",
          "position_context_bonus": 1.0,
          "projection_gap": -0.76,
          "score": 0.24,
          "weakest_starter_id": "95799",
          "weakest_starter_name": "Artur",
          "weakest_starter_projection": 5.4873
        },
        "club": "BAH",
        "expected_gain": 0.24,
        "expected_points": 4.7237,
        "name": "Erick Pulga",
        "player_id": "109401",
        "position": "ata",
        "price": 8.49
      },
      "players_changed": 4,
      "projected_total": 66.52,
      "scenario": "main_player_unavailable",
      "starter_cost": 94.76,
      "starter_ids": [
        "101908",
        "102928",
        "102975",
        "104783",
        "107256",
        "109096",
        "113690",
        "124526",
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      "team_win_prob": 0.4929,
      "venue": "home"
    },
    {
      "cartomante_evidence": {
        "club_slug": "atletico-pr",
        "escalacao_atualizada_em": "2026-09-19T14:42:19.886Z",
        "esquema": "5-2-3",
        "method": "cartomante_escalacao_provavel",
        "source_id": "cartomante"
      },
      "cartomante_starter": true,
      "cartomante_statusIA": true,
      "club": "CAP",
      "club_id": "293",
      "code_commit": "bf64c1683a536c0e5c3cff8451b635711ba5e403",
      "confidence": "high",
      "expected_minutes": null,
      "expected_points": 5.7108,
      "expected_points_original_odds": 5.85,
      "factors_positive": [
        "status_probable_observed",
        "home_fixture_observed",
        "season_mean_at_or_above_shrunk_projection",
        "named_in_probable_lineup"
      ],
      "field_provenance": {
        "opponent_venue": {
          "classification": "observed",
          "source_id": "cartola_2026_fixtures_r28"
        },
        "price_status_scouts": {
          "classification": "observed",
          "source_id": "cartola_2026_athlete_market_r28"
        }
      },
      "games": 24,
      "historical_mean": 5.92,
      "limitations": [
        "no_pre_cutoff_minutes_or_lineup_history",
        "prediction_interval_unavailable"
      ],
      "markov_points": 5.85,
      "match_id": "346552",
      "method": "mean_by_player_shrunk_to_position_mean",
      "model_version": "baseline-shrinkage-current-2026-v1",
      "name": "Odair Hellmann",
      "odds_home": true,
      "odds_overlay": {
        "applied": -0.1392,
        "factor": 0.9762,
        "win_prob": 0.4405
      },
      "opponent": "BAH",
      "opponent_id": "265",
      "player_id": "92273",
      "points_p10": null,
      "points_p50": 5.85,
      "points_p90": null,
      "position": "tec",
      "price": 8.82,
      "risks": [],
      "rotation_risk": "low",
      "season_scouts": {
        "V": 12
      },
      "snapshot_id": "snap_current_69b940c8a5f5512f55c1",
      "starter_evidence": {
        "evidence": {
          "club": "bahia",
          "slot": "TEC",
          "slug": "odair-hellmann"
        },
        "method": "provaveisdocartola_html",
        "reason": "na escala\u00e7\u00e3o prov\u00e1vel (provavel)",
        "source_id": "provaveisdocartola"
      },
      "starter_probability": 0.9,
      "status": "Prov\u00e1vel",
      "status_id": 7,
      "structural_rotation_evidence": {
        "reason": "no_continental_match_in_window"
      },
      "structural_rotation_flag": false,
      "team_draw_prob": 0.2775,
      "team_win_prob": 0.4405,
      "venue": "home"
    }
  ],
  "submitted": false,
  "temporal_warning": null
}

{
  "context_applied": [],
  "feature_registry": [
    {
      "classification": "observed",
      "detail": "cumulative scouts in athlete market payload",
      "feature": "season_scouts",
      "source_ids": [
        "cartola_2026_athlete_market_r28"
      ]
    },
    {
      "classification": "unavailable",
      "detail": "no round-by-round scout history in collected payload",
      "feature": "recent_scouts",
      "source_ids": []
    },
    {
      "classification": "unavailable",
      "detail": "reliable minutes are not present",
      "feature": "points_per_90",
      "source_ids": []
    },
    {
      "classification": "observed",
      "detail": "current valid fixture home/away assignment",
      "feature": "venue",
      "source_ids": [
        "cartola_2026_fixtures_r28"
      ]
    },
    {
      "classification": "unavailable",
      "detail": "no split performance history collected",
      "feature": "home_away_form",
      "source_ids": []
    },
    {
      "classification": "unavailable",
      "detail": "no validated attack-strength model in this snapshot",
      "feature": "offensive_strength",
      "source_ids": []
    },
    {
      "classification": "unavailable",
      "detail": "no validated defense-strength model in this snapshot",
      "feature": "defensive_strength",
      "source_ids": []
    },
    {
      "classification": "observed",
      "detail": "current valid fixture opponent",
      "feature": "opponent",
      "source_ids": [
        "cartola_2026_fixtures_r28"
      ]
    },
    {
      "classification": "unavailable",
      "detail": "required event history was not collected",
      "feature": "conceded_scouts_by_position",
      "source_ids": []
    },
    {
      "classification": "derived",
      "detail": "linked GE lineup claims to Cartola athlete entities via name matching",
      "feature": "probable_lineup",
      "source_ids": [
        "ge_2026_availability_r28"
      ]
    },
    {
      "classification": "observed",
      "detail": "cartomante escala\u00e7\u00e3o prov\u00e1vel consolidada (shadow \u2014 n\u00e3o altera produ\u00e7\u00e3o)",
      "feature": "probable_lineup_consensus",
      "source_ids": [
        "mee.cartomantefc.com.br"
      ]
    },
    {
      "classification": "observed",
      "detail": "linked GE lineup claims to Cartola athlete entities via name matching",
      "feature": "injuries",
      "source_ids": [
        "ge_2026_availability_r28"
      ]
    },
    {
      "classification": "observed",
      "detail": "linked GE lineup claims to Cartola athlete entities via name matching",
      "feature": "suspensions",
      "source_ids": [
        "ge_2026_availability_r28"
      ]
    },
    {
      "classification": "derived",
      "detail": "linked GE lineup claims to Cartola athlete entities via name matching",
      "feature": "rotation_risk",
      "source_ids": [
        "ge_2026_availability_r28"
      ]
    },
    {
      "classification": "observed",
      "detail": "sinal observacional de rota\u00e7\u00e3o estrutural: jogo continental na semana + jogo no fim da janela (shadow \u2014 n\u00e3o altera produ\u00e7\u00e3o)",
      "feature": "structural_rotation",
      "source_ids": [
        "the_odds_api"
      ]
    },
    {
      "classification": "derived",
      "detail": "linked GE lineup claims to Cartola athlete entities via name matching",
      "feature": "starter_probability",
      "source_ids": [
        "ge_2026_availability_r28"
      ]
    },
    {
      "classification": "derived",
      "detail": "linked GE lineup claims to Cartola athlete entities via name matching",
      "feature": "expected_minutes",
      "source_ids": [
        "ge_2026_availability_r28"
      ]
    },
    {
      "classification": "unavailable",
      "detail": "no reliable current set-piece assignment source collected",
      "feature": "set_pieces",
      "source_ids": []
    },
    {
      "classification": "observed",
      "detail": "official current and next-round fixture payloads",
      "feature": "calendar",
      "source_ids": [
        "cartola_2026_fixtures_r28",
        "cartola_2026_fixtures_r29"
      ]
    },
    {
      "classification": "unavailable",
      "detail": "no reliable change log collected",
      "feature": "coach_change",
      "source_ids": []
    },
    {
      "classification": "observed",
      "detail": "the-odds-api h2h/totals (probabilidade impl\u00edcita por clube)",
      "feature": "odds",
      "source_ids": [
        "the_odds_api"
      ]
    },
    {
      "classification": "unavailable",
      "detail": "no validated probability source or model",
      "feature": "win_goal_clean_sheet_probabilities",
      "source_ids": []
    },
    {
      "classification": "derived",
      "detail": "season average shrunk to position mean",
      "feature": "baseline_projection",
      "source_ids": [
        "cartola_2026_athlete_market_r28"
      ]
    },
    {
      "classification": "inferred",
      "detail": "rule-based from data completeness and market timing",
      "feature": "simulation_confidence",
      "source_ids": [
        "cartola_2026_market_status_r28"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T18:01:00Z",
  "round": 28,
  "schema_version": 1,
  "season": 2026,
  "snapshot_id": "snap_current_69b940c8a5f5512f55c1",
  "source_failures": [],
  "team_availability_claims": [
    {
      "classification": "observed",
      "club": "ATHLETICO-PR",
      "entity_linkage": "source_level_only",
      "injured_claim": "Claudinho",
      "observed_at": "2026-08-08T13:00:00-03:00",
      "probable_lineup_claim": "Mycael; Dantas, Aguirre e Arthur Dias; Gilberto Moraes, Luiz Gustavo, Jadson e Esquivel; Mendoza, Leozinho e Vargas",
      "published_at": null,
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T18:01:00Z",
      "source_id": "ge_2026_availability_r28",
      "suspended_claim": "Jo\u00e3o Cruz e Viveros"
    },
    {
      "classification": "observed",
      "club": "ATL\u00c9TICO-MG",
      "entity_linkage": "source_level_only",
      "injured_claim": "Ruan, \u00cdndio, Thiago Borbas e Everson",
      "observed_at": "2026-08-08T13:00:00-03:00",
      "probable_lineup_claim": "Gabriel Delfim; Natanael, Lyanco, Vit\u00e3o (Vitor Hugo), Renan Lodi; Alan Franco, Casta\u00f1o, Fred; Bernard, Cuello e Cassierra",
      "published_at": null,
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T18:01:00Z",
      "source_id": "ge_2026_availability_r28",
      "suspended_claim": "ningu\u00e9m"
    },
    {
      "classification": "observed",
      "club": "BAHIA",
      "entity_linkage": "source_level_only",
      "injured_claim": "L\u00e9o Vieira",
      "observed_at": "2026-08-08T13:00:00-03:00",
      "probable_lineup_claim": "Ronaldo; Roman Gomez (Marcos Victor), (Kanu), David Duarte e Luciano Juba; Acevedo, Jean Lucas (Erick) e Rodrigo Nestor; Ademir (Kau\u00ea Furquim), Erick Pulga e Alejo Veliz",
      "published_at": null,
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T18:01:00Z",
      "source_id": "ge_2026_availability_r28",
      "suspended_claim": "Cristian Olivera"
    },
    {
      "classification": "observed",
      "club": "BOTAFOGO",
      "entity_linkage": "source_level_only",
      "injured_claim": "Paulinho, Barrera e Kaio",
      "observed_at": "2026-08-08T13:00:00-03:00",
      "probable_lineup_claim": "Gabriel Batista; Vitinho, Lucas Monz\u00f3n, Ferraresi e Alex Telles; Huguinho e Danilo; Montoro e Medina; Danilo Pereira e Arthur Cabral",
      "published_at": null,
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T18:01:00Z",
      "source_id": "ge_2026_availability_r28",
      "suspended_claim": "ningu\u00e9m"
    },
    {
      "classification": "observed",
      "club": "BRAGANTINO",
      "entity_linkage": "source_level_only",
      "injured_claim": "Davi Gomes, Eduardo Sasha e Vanderlan",
      "observed_at": "2026-08-08T13:00:00-03:00",
      "probable_lineup_claim": "Tiago Volpi; Agustin Sant\u2019Anna, Gustavo Marques, Alix Vin\u00edcius e Vanderlan (Cau\u00ea); Fabinho, Rodriguinho e Lucas Barbosa; Fernando, Herrera e Isidro Pitta",
      "published_at": null,
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T18:01:00Z",
      "source_id": "ge_2026_availability_r28",
      "suspended_claim": "Juninho Capixaba e Wallace Yan"
    },
    {
      "classification": "observed",
      "club": "CHAPECOENSE",
      "entity_linkage": "source_level_only",
      "injured_claim": "Vin\u00edcius Balieiro, Heitor, Rafael Carvalheira, Max, Robert e Bruno Tubar\u00e3o",
      "observed_at": "2026-08-08T13:00:00-03:00",
      "probable_lineup_claim": "Anderson, Dudu, Kauan Faria, Eduardo Doma, Bruno Pacheco; Camilo, Yago Felipe, Giovanni Augusto, Marcinho, T\u00falio Eduardo e Garcez",
      "published_at": null,
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T18:01:00Z",
      "source_id": "ge_2026_availability_r28",
      "suspended_claim": "Jo\u00e3o Paulo"
    },
    {
      "classification": "observed",
      "club": "CORINTHIANS",
      "entity_linkage": "source_level_only",
      "injured_claim": "Vitinho, Andr\u00e9 Ramalho, Kayke, Yuri Alberto, Andr\u00e9 e Labyad",
      "observed_at": "2026-08-08T13:00:00-03:00",
      "probable_lineup_claim": "Hugo Souza; Matheuzinho, Jo\u00e3o Pedro Tchoca (Gabriel Paulista), Gustavo Henrique e Matheus Bidu; Raniele, Allan, Breno Bidon (Carrillo) e Rodrigo Garro; Kaio C\u00e9sar e Memphis Depay",
      "published_at": null,
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T18:01:00Z",
      "source_id": "ge_2026_availability_r28",
      "suspended_claim": "ningu\u00e9m"
    },
    {
      "classification": "observed",
      "club": "CORITIBA",
      "entity_linkage": "source_level_only",
      "injured_claim": "Lucas Ronier, Ocampo, Tinga, JP Chermont, Keno e Felipe Jonatan",
      "observed_at": "2026-08-08T13:00:00-03:00",
      "probable_lineup_claim": "Pedro Morisco; Tiago C\u00f3ser, Rodrigo Moledo, Jacy e Bruno Melo (Rodrigo Gelado); Thiago Santos, Sebasti\u00e1n G\u00f3mez e Josu\u00e9; Lavega, Pedro Rocha e Fabinho (Paulo Roberto)",
      "published_at": null,
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T18:01:00Z",
      "source_id": "ge_2026_availability_r28",
      "suspended_claim": "Breno Lopes"
    },
    {
      "classification": "observed",
      "club": "CRUZEIRO",
      "entity_linkage": "source_level_only",
      "injured_claim": "Gabriel Pec, Sinisterra e Peralta",
      "observed_at": "2026-08-08T13:00:00-03:00",
      "probable_lineup_claim": "Ot\u00e1vio; Fagner, Jonathan Jesus (Jo\u00e3o Marcelo), Fabr\u00edcio Bruno e Gabriel Rojas; Z\u00e9 Lucas, Gerson, Matheus Pereira e Matheus Henrique (Wesley); Arroyo e Kaio Jorge",
      "published_at": null,
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T18:01:00Z",
      "source_id": "ge_2026_availability_r28",
      "suspended_claim": "ningu\u00e9m"
    },
    {
      "classification": "observed",
      "club": "FLAMENGO",
      "entity_linkage": "source_level_only",
      "injured_claim": "Alex Sandro e Evertton Ara\u00fajo",
      "observed_at": "2026-08-08T13:00:00-03:00",
      "probable_lineup_claim": "Rossi; Varela, L\u00e9o Ortiz, L\u00e9o Pereira (Danilo) e Ayrton Lucas; Sa\u00fal (De La Cruz), Jorginho e Arrascaeta; Bruno Henrique, Plata e Pedro",
      "published_at": null,
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T18:01:00Z",
      "source_id": "ge_2026_availability_r28",
      "suspended_claim": "Erick Pulgar, Lucas Paquet\u00e1 e Samuel Lino"
    },
    {
      "classification": "observed",
      "club": "FLUMINENSE",
      "entity_linkage": "source_level_only",
      "injured_claim": "John Kennedy, Matheus Reis, Alisson e Cano",
      "observed_at": "2026-08-08T13:00:00-03:00",
      "probable_lineup_claim": "F\u00e1bio; Guga, Thiago Silva, Mill\u00e1n e Ren\u00ea; Martinelli, H\u00e9rcules e Ganso; Canobbio, Soteldo e Hulk",
      "published_at": null,
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T18:01:00Z",
      "source_id": "ge_2026_availability_r28",
      "suspended_claim": "ningu\u00e9m"
    },
    {
      "classification": "observed",
      "club": "GR\u00caMIO",
      "entity_linkage": "source_level_only",
      "injured_claim": "Dodi e Marlon",
      "observed_at": "2026-08-08T13:00:00-03:00",
      "probable_lineup_claim": "Weverton, Diego Caito, Gustavo Martins, Wallace e Pedro Gabriel; Noriega (Danilo Barbosa), Villasanti e Krovinovic; Pavon, Carlos Vinicius e Amuzu (Jovane Cabral)",
      "published_at": null,
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T18:01:00Z",
      "source_id": "ge_2026_availability_r28",
      "suspended_claim": "ningu\u00e9m"
    },
    {
      "classification": "observed",
      "club": "INTERNACIONAL",
      "entity_linkage": "source_level_only",
      "injured_claim": "Allex, Rochet e Kayky",
      "observed_at": "2026-08-08T13:00:00-03:00",
      "probable_lineup_claim": "Matheus Cunha; Vitinho, Bruno Gomes, Mercado, Marip\u00e1n e Matheus Bahia; Bruno Henrique (Thiago Maia), Paulinho (Thiago Maia) e Bernabei; Alan Patrick e Carbonero",
      "published_at": null,
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T18:01:00Z",
      "source_id": "ge_2026_availability_r28",
      "suspended_claim": "Victor Gabriel (STJD) e Villagra"
    },
    {
      "classification": "observed",
      "club": "MIRASSOL",
      "entity_linkage": "source_level_only",
      "injured_claim": "Negueba e Aldo Filho",
      "observed_at": "2026-08-08T13:00:00-03:00",
      "probable_lineup_claim": "Walter; Igor Formiga, Jo\u00e3o Victor, Willian Machado e Reinaldo; Denilson, Chico Kim e Eduardo (Shaylon); Edson Carioca, Bruno Santos e Fernandinho",
      "published_at": null,
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T18:01:00Z",
      "source_id": "ge_2026_availability_r28",
      "suspended_claim": "Alesson"
    },
    {
      "classification": "observed",
      "club": "PALMEIRAS",
      "entity_linkage": "source_level_only",
      "injured_claim": "Ram\u00f3n Sosa, Jeft\u00e9 e Paulinho",
      "observed_at": "2026-08-08T13:00:00-03:00",
      "probable_lineup_claim": "Carlos Miguel; Gustavo G\u00f3mez, Bruno Fuchs e Barboza; Giay, Marlon Freitas, Andreas Pereira e Piquerez; Arias, Flaco L\u00f3pez e Vitor Roque",
      "published_at": null,
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T18:01:00Z",
      "source_id": "ge_2026_availability_r28",
      "suspended_claim": "Murilo"
    },
    {
      "classification": "observed",
      "club": "REMO",
      "entity_linkage": "source_level_only",
      "injured_claim": "Jo\u00e3o Lucas",
      "observed_at": "2026-08-08T13:00:00-03:00",
      "probable_lineup_claim": "Marcelo Rangel; Marcelinho, Marllon, Tchamba e Marlon; Z\u00e9 Welison, Picco e Vitor Bueno (Z\u00e9 Ricardo); Pikachu, Galeano (Alef Manga) e Gabriel Taliari",
      "published_at": null,
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T18:01:00Z",
      "source_id": "ge_2026_availability_r28",
      "suspended_claim": "Matheus Felipe"
    },
    {
      "classification": "observed",
      "club": "SANTOS",
      "entity_linkage": "source_level_only",
      "injured_claim": "Gabriel Braz\u00e3o, Barreal, Neymar e Vini Lira",
      "observed_at": "2026-08-08T13:00:00-03:00",
      "probable_lineup_claim": "Di\u00f3genes; Rodinei, Lucas Ver\u00edssimo, Luan Peres (Jo\u00e3o Ananias) e Escobar; Jo\u00e3o Schmidt, Christian Oliva (Gustavo Henrique) e Rollheiser; Gabriel Bontempo, Rony e Gabigol",
      "published_at": null,
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T18:01:00Z",
      "source_id": "ge_2026_availability_r28",
      "suspended_claim": "Everton Cebolinha"
    },
    {
      "classification": "observed",
      "club": "S\u00c3O PAULO",
      "entity_linkage": "source_level_only",
      "injured_claim": "Buta, Bobadilla, Nicolas e Lucas Moura",
      "observed_at": "2026-08-08T13:00:00-03:00",
      "probable_lineup_claim": "Rafael; Domingos Duarte, Arboleda e Sabino; Lucas Ramon (Pedro Lima), Marcos Ant\u00f4nio, Danielzinho e Iago; Artur, Luciano e Calleri.",
      "published_at": null,
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T18:01:00Z",
      "source_id": "ge_2026_availability_r28",
      "suspended_claim": "Osorio e Pablo Maia"
    },
    {
      "classification": "observed",
      "club": "VASCO",
      "entity_linkage": "source_level_only",
      "injured_claim": "Brenner e Mateus Carvalho",
      "observed_at": "2026-08-08T13:00:00-03:00",
      "probable_lineup_claim": "L\u00e9o Jardim; Paulo Henrique, Cuesta (Saldivia), Robert Renan, Cuiabano; Sosa, Thiago Mendes, Lescano; Andr\u00e9s G\u00f3mez, Adson (Bruno Duarte) e Colidio",
      "published_at": null,
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T18:01:00Z",
      "source_id": "ge_2026_availability_r28",
      "suspended_claim": "Tch\u00ea Tch\u00ea"
    },
    {
      "classification": "observed",
      "club": "VIT\u00d3RIA",
      "entity_linkage": "source_level_only",
      "injured_claim": "Nathan Mendes, Camutanga, Edu, Dudu, Ramon, Walace, Baralhas, R\u00faben Ismael e Anderson Pato",
      "observed_at": "2026-08-08T13:00:00-03:00",
      "probable_lineup_claim": "Lucas Arcanjo; Mateus Silva, Cac\u00e1, Luan C\u00e2ndido e Jamerson; Ca\u00edque Gon\u00e7alves, Emmanuel Mart\u00ednez [Br\u00edtez] e Z\u00e9 Vitor; Erick, Diego Tarzia [Matheuzinho] e Ren\u00ea",
      "published_at": null,
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T18:01:00Z",
      "source_id": "ge_2026_availability_r28",
      "suspended_claim": "ningu\u00e9m"
    }
  ]
}

[
  {
    "decision_id": "dec_41baf3176fffad90321d7dfd",
    "decision_type": "current_round_shadow_simulation",
    "rationale": [
      "latest_reliable_collected_sources",
      "status_probable_only",
      "markov_plus_production",
      "automatic_submission_disabled"
    ],
    "recorded_at": "2026-09-19T18:01:00Z",
    "round": 28,
    "season": 2026,
    "simulation_id": "sim_6a38b6124b3749ed45de6b2b",
    "snapshot_id": "snap_current_69b940c8a5f5512f55c1",
    "submitted": false
  }
]

Probabilidades internas experimentais; não são odds de mercado e não alteraram o baseline.

{
  "ablation": {
    "minimum_rounds_for_comparison": 5,
    "odds_market": {
      "available": false,
      "must_not_be_confused_with": "MODEL_DERIVED",
      "status": "FUTURE_FEATURE_PENDING"
    },
    "price_feature": {
      "required_comparison": "modelo D sem pre\u00e7o vs modelo D com pre\u00e7o",
      "status": "EXPERIMENTAL_NOT_ENABLED"
    },
    "production_baseline_changed": false,
    "projection_impact": null,
    "scenarios": [
      {
        "eligible_observations": 0,
        "features": [],
        "id": "A",
        "label": "baseline atual",
        "metrics": null,
        "promotion_status": "CURRENT_BASELINE"
      },
      {
        "eligible_observations": 0,
        "features": [
          "elo"
        ],
        "id": "B",
        "label": "baseline + Elo",
        "metrics": null,
        "promotion_status": "EXPERIMENTAL"
      },
      {
        "eligible_observations": 0,
        "features": [
          "elo",
          "home_away"
        ],
        "id": "C",
        "label": "baseline + Elo + casa/fora",
        "metrics": null,
        "promotion_status": "EXPERIMENTAL"
      },
      {
        "eligible_observations": 0,
        "features": [
          "elo",
          "home_away",
          "attack_defense",
          "recent_form"
        ],
        "id": "D",
        "label": "baseline + Elo + ataque/defesa + forma recente",
        "metrics": null,
        "promotion_status": "EXPERIMENTAL"
      }
    ],
    "schema_version": 1,
    "status": "INSUFFICIENT_TEMPORALLY_ELIGIBLE_SAMPLE",
    "temporally_eligible_rounds": 0
  },
  "as_of": "2026-07-26T09:05:43Z",
  "classification": "MODEL_DERIVED",
  "feature_status": {
    "athlete_price": "EXPERIMENTAL_NOT_ENABLED",
    "attack_defense": "EXPERIMENTAL",
    "elo": "EXPERIMENTAL",
    "home_away": "EXPERIMENTAL",
    "market_odds": "FUTURE_FEATURE_PENDING",
    "recent_form": "EXPERIMENTAL"
  },
  "fixture_presentations": [
    {
      "classification": "MODEL_DERIVED",
      "fixture_id": "346285",
      "market_odds": "Odds de mercado indispon\u00edveis.",
      "probabilities": {
        "empate": "27,7%",
        "saldo_de_gols_do_mandante": "31,1%",
        "vit\u00f3ria_do_mandante": "47,4%",
        "vit\u00f3ria_do_visitante": "24,9%"
      },
      "sample_quality": "sufficient",
      "summary": "Mirassol chega ao confronto com for\u00e7a ofensiva superior \u00e0 de Remo e ainda apresenta vantagem de mando observada nos dados.",
      "title": "Mirassol \u00d7 Remo"
    },
    {
      "classification": "MODEL_DERIVED",
      "fixture_id": "346287",
      "market_odds": "Odds de mercado indispon\u00edveis.",
      "probabilities": {
        "empate": "27,7%",
        "saldo_de_gols_do_mandante": "21,3%",
        "vit\u00f3ria_do_mandante": "33,2%",
        "vit\u00f3ria_do_visitante": "39,2%"
      },
      "sample_quality": "sufficient",
      "summary": "Os ataques chegam ao confronto em n\u00edvel semelhante.",
      "title": "Colorado \u00d7 Meng\u00e3o"
    },
    {
      "classification": "MODEL_DERIVED",
      "fixture_id": "346281",
      "market_odds": "Odds de mercado indispon\u00edveis.",
      "probabilities": {
        "empate": "27,7%",
        "saldo_de_gols_do_mandante": "27,6%",
        "vit\u00f3ria_do_mandante": "48,6%",
        "vit\u00f3ria_do_visitante": "23,8%"
      },
      "sample_quality": "sufficient",
      "summary": "Tricolor chega ao confronto com for\u00e7a ofensiva superior \u00e0 de Tricolor de A\u00e7o e ainda apresenta vantagem de mando observada nos dados.",
      "title": "Tricolor \u00d7 Tricolor de A\u00e7o"
    },
    {
      "classification": "MODEL_DERIVED",
      "fixture_id": "346289",
      "market_odds": "Odds de mercado indispon\u00edveis.",
      "probabilities": {
        "empate": "27,7%",
        "saldo_de_gols_do_mandante": "31,1%",
        "vit\u00f3ria_do_mandante": "33,7%",
        "vit\u00f3ria_do_visitante": "38,6%"
      },
      "sample_quality": "sufficient",
      "summary": "Vit\u00f3ria chega ao confronto com for\u00e7a ofensiva superior \u00e0 de Verd\u00e3o.",
      "title": "Vit\u00f3ria \u00d7 Verd\u00e3o"
    },
    {
      "classification": "MODEL_DERIVED",
      "fixture_id": "346284",
      "market_odds": "Odds de mercado indispon\u00edveis.",
      "probabilities": {
        "empate": "27,7%",
        "saldo_de_gols_do_mandante": "34,0%",
        "vit\u00f3ria_do_mandante": "43,2%",
        "vit\u00f3ria_do_visitante": "29,1%"
      },
      "sample_quality": "sufficient",
      "summary": "Tim\u00e3o chega ao confronto com for\u00e7a ofensiva superior \u00e0 de Furac\u00e3o e ainda apresenta vantagem de mando observada nos dados.",
      "title": "Tim\u00e3o \u00d7 Furac\u00e3o"
    },
    {
      "classification": "MODEL_DERIVED",
      "fixture_id": "346288",
      "market_odds": "Odds de mercado indispon\u00edveis.",
      "probabilities": {
        "empate": "27,7%",
        "saldo_de_gols_do_mandante": "26,5%",
        "vit\u00f3ria_do_mandante": "45,2%",
        "vit\u00f3ria_do_visitante": "27,1%"
      },
      "sample_quality": "sufficient",
      "summary": "Os ataques chegam ao confronto em n\u00edvel semelhante, e os dados indicam vantagem de mando para Coxa.",
      "title": "Coxa \u00d7 Raposa"
    }
  ],
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    "team_features_not_calibrated_to_athlete_points",
    "no_temporally_eligible_ablation_sample",
    "market_odds_unavailable"
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  "production_baseline_changed": false,
  "projection_impact": null,
  "schema_version": 1,
  "season": 2026,
  "source_manifest": {
    "content_hash": "sha256:a805732839916b611abe3390bcda4318289903c6d838e1f1dbd0c2cf998093af",
    "path": "data/raw/2026/team-signals/20260726T090543Z/sources.json"
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    "fixtures": [
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        "round": 21,
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        "round": 21,
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      {
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        "round": 21,
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      {
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        "sample_quality": "sufficient"
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        "probability_method": "elo_score_with_empirical_draw_rate",
        "round": 1
      },
      {
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        "home_expected_score_pre": 0.534483,
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        "kickoff_at": "2026-01-30T00:30:00Z",
        "match_id": "346236",
        "probability_method": "elo_score_with_empirical_draw_rate",
        "round": 1
      },
      {
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        "away_win_probability": 0.322222,
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        "home_expected_score_pre": 0.55,
        "home_team_id": "262",
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        "kickoff_at": "2026-02-04T22:00:00Z",
        "match_id": "346255",
        "probability_method": "elo_score_with_empirical_draw_rate",
        "round": 2
      },
      {
        "away_elo_pre": 1500.0,
        "away_team_id": "282",
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        "home_expected_score_pre": 0.564202,
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        "home_win_probability": 0.436425,
        "kickoff_at": "2026-02-04T22:00:00Z",
        "match_id": "346259",
        "probability_method": "elo_score_with_empirical_draw_rate",
        "round": 2
      },
      {
        "away_elo_pre": 1510.0,
        "away_team_id": "276",
        "away_win_probability": 0.33059,
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        "home_advantage_elo_pre": 43.657788,
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        "home_expected_score_pre": 0.533994,
        "home_team_id": "277",
        "home_win_probability": 0.398577,
        "kickoff_at": "2026-02-04T23:00:00Z",
        "match_id": "346257",
        "probability_method": "elo_score_with_empirical_draw_rate",
        "round": 2
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      "285": {
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        "home_attack_rate": 1.2563631572420635,
        "home_attack_strength": 0.953367,
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        "home_matches": 9,
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        "points_per_game_season": 1.368421,
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      "315": {
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        "home_matches": 10,
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      "364": {
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        "home_attack_strength": 1.03969,
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        "home_matches": 9,
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      }
    }
  }
}

• src_cartola_2025_r9
  função: pre_cutoff_player_state · disponível: 2025-05-20T13:11:52Z
  sha256:2320c81697e78c4fecc3f563791ed82b6b5a776e1cfed32570c74283b770b6c1
• src_ge_2025_howto
  função: rules_roster_budget_captain · disponível: 2025-04-02T16:40:34Z
  sha256:7978f36db8a4b443da4070638d600686a82ffddfb1297b34d7c551103eba4452
• src_ge_2025_luxury
  função: rules_bench_luxury · disponível: 2025-03-17T19:59:05Z
  sha256:bd6f63d3c0bd8821114a27704f92f49980456d44506bd37fa56935e3754a878e
• src_ge_2025_r10_schedule
  função: pre_cutoff_schedule_and_close · disponível: 2025-05-20T16:38:16Z
  sha256:f54203ffe36c7f7fc5778f90683c3cc81e1d92f41a93a98459df38456e457dbe
• src_ge_2025_scoring
  função: rules_scoring · disponível: 2025-03-17T19:03:21Z
  sha256:ce3d3818998b5c594a15fc13946751c68b28763257c1d3f86cffe9444fdaf854
• src_ge_2025_tactics
  função: rules_formations · disponível: 2025-03-30T00:06:08Z
  sha256:66aab0e40f95f5a18c4f08b95df5574020eb0e5a2ed118ae2439c1c92684d478
• src_cartola_2025_r10
  função: post_round_result · disponível: 2025-05-27T13:11:56Z
  sha256:78f93cb7cd3041e98e58ae8b443909fa780fb004e3006629397c9ab0ea079b6c
  Abrir fonte pública

[
  {
    "as_of": "2025-05-20T16:38:16Z",
    "code_commit": "a40751c5b6fc60b5aaaaecd08216e68552c9b17e",
    "decision_id": "dec_09d2d640dc9b71d6e1090528",
    "decision_type": "historical_lineup_selected",
    "facts": [
      {
        "type": "cutoff_validated",
        "value": true
      },
      {
        "type": "rules_version",
        "value": "cartola-2025-v1"
      }
    ],
    "inferences": [
      {
        "type": "prediction_method",
        "value": "mean_by_player_shrunk_to_position_mean"
      },
      {
        "type": "optimizer_status",
        "value": "OPTIMAL"
      }
    ],
    "model_version": "baseline-shrinkage-v1",
    "new_state": {
      "budget": 110.0,
      "captain_id": "87863",
      "code_commit": "a40751c5b6fc60b5aaaaecd08216e68552c9b17e",
      "cost": 109.73,
      "formation": "4-3-3",
      "model_version": "baseline-shrinkage-v1",
      "objective": 82.16,
      "rules_version": "cartola-2025-v1",
      "snapshot_id": "snap_72951b7ddb53a46894eff886",
      "source_ids": [
        "src_cartola_2025_r9",
        "src_ge_2025_howto",
        "src_ge_2025_luxury",
        "src_ge_2025_r10_schedule",
        "src_ge_2025_scoring",
        "src_ge_2025_tactics"
      ],
      "starter_ids": [
        "93879",
        "130811",
        "94968",
        "106593",
        "141525",
        "110727",
        "126471",
        "87863",
        "103445",
        "104204",
        "124280",
        "126977"
      ]
    },
    "previous_state": {},
    "rationale": [
      "maximize_expected_points_under_formation_and_budget"
    ],
    "recorded_at": "2025-05-20T16:38:16Z",
    "round": 10,
    "schema_version": "1.0",
    "season": 2025,
    "snapshot_id": "snap_72951b7ddb53a46894eff886",
    "source_ids": [
      "src_cartola_2025_r9",
      "src_ge_2025_howto",
      "src_ge_2025_luxury",
      "src_ge_2025_r10_schedule",
      "src_ge_2025_scoring",
      "src_ge_2025_tactics"
    ],
    "supersedes": null
  }
]

{
  "captain": {
    "error": -0.44,
    "multiplier": 1.5,
    "player_id": "87863",
    "predicted_points": 10.14,
    "realized_bonus": 4.85,
    "realized_points": 9.7
  },
  "code_commit": "f59fd4cb49a5f4d96a6300461b9804ba6f3ba493",
  "evaluation_id": "eval_748e2f18eedd5541192bb073",
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